INVEXOR WEEKLY
Models & Markets.
EDITION #13 · 12 OCTOBER 2026

WHEN SOFTWARE GOES SHOPPING

2 CHARTS · 1 POSTER · 3 STORIES · 1 FOUNDER’S NOTE
AI agents are learning to run our errands.
Inside: Indian IT’s rally and TSMC’s chip sales.
PAGE 05
Weekly Returns
PAGE 03
BANK SHARES ADVANCE · LONG GILTS RETREAT
Price & Value
PAGE 04
SHORT-TERM NOISE · LONG-TERM BUSINESS
Indian IT Services
PAGE 06
THE VISA QUEUE IS NOT THE ORDER BOOK
AI Business Economics
PAGE 07
CHIP SALES VS PRIVATE FUNDING · TSMC NT$511.9B
EVERY MONDAY · 8 AM IST PAGE 01 / 09 · INVEXOR.AI/WEEKLY
01 · THREE-MONTH RETURNS
INDIA

Smallcaps took the smaller hit.

Research analyst
Smallcaps fell 2.2%. Nifty 50 fell 7.4%.
ETF Returns 65 SESSIONS · 10 JUL – 12 OCT 2026 +4% +2% 0.0% BASE -2% -4% -6% -8% 07 OCT · RBI +25 bps (5.50%) EBBETF0431 -0.45% GSEC5IETF -0.91% HDFCSML250 -2.16% BANKIETF -5.26% MIDCAPIETF -6.47% NIFTYBEES -7.42% 10 JUL 07 AUG 04 SEP 12 OCT
ETF Returns 07 OCT · RBI +25 bps +4% 0% -4% -8% 10 JUL 24 AUG 12 OCT
ETF Returns 3-Month YTD
Edelweiss Bharat Bond ETF Apr-2031 EBBETF0431
−0.45% +2.75%
ICICI Prudential Nifty 5yr Benchmark G-Sec ETF GSEC5IETF
−0.91% +2.44%
HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF HDFCSML250
−2.16% +6.53%
ICICI Prudential Bank Nifty ETF BANKIETF
−5.26% −7.41%
ICICI Prudential Nifty Midcap 150 ETF MIDCAPIETF
−6.47% −2.27%
Nippon India ETF Nifty 50 BeES NIFTYBEES
−7.42% −13.77%

Takeaways

  • Smallcaps fell less over three months and stayed positive for the year.
  • Banks beat midcaps over three months, but trailed them this year. The time window changes the ranking.
Settled NSE closes (₹) · 10 Jul–12 Oct 2026 (65 sessions) · YTD from 31 Dec 2025
INVEXOR WEEKLY · ISSUE 13 · 12 OCT 2026 PAGE 02 OF 09
02 · WEEKLY RETURNS

One week. Four different moves.

INDIA

Weekly price changes from 5 to 12 October 2026 across 10 ETFs and benchmarks. Sorted from the largest gain to the largest fall.

Instrument Segment 5 Oct Close 12 Oct Close Weekly % change
ICICI Prudential Bank Nifty ETF BANKIETF · NSE ETF Banking ₹56.07 ₹56.38 +0.55%
Edelweiss Bharat Bond ETF Apr-2031 EBBETF0431 · Target Debt PSU Bond ₹1,427.05 ₹1,434.77 +0.54%
S&P 500 Index (US Benchmark) SPX · 9 Oct Close (pts) US Equity 7,774.22 pts 7,811.54 pts +0.48%
ICICI Prudential Nifty 5yr Benchmark G-Sec ETF GSEC5IETF · Short G-Sec 5Y Sovereign ₹65.39 ₹65.54 +0.23%
HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF HDFCSML250 · NSE ETF Small Cap ₹178.32 ₹178.66 +0.19%
Nippon India ETF Liquid BeES LIQUIDBEES · Overnight Cash Cash / NAV ₹1,000.00 ₹1,000.00 0.00%
Nippon India ETF Gold BeES GOLDBEES · Commodity ETF Gold ₹56.54 ₹56.38 −0.28%
ICICI Prudential Nifty Midcap 150 ETF MIDCAPIETF · NSE ETF Mid Cap ₹22.21 ₹22.11 −0.45%
SBI ETF 10 Year Gilt SETF10GILT · Long G-Sec 10Y Sovereign ₹260.58 ₹258.55 −0.78%
Nippon India ETF Nifty 50 BeES NIFTYBEES · NSE ETF Large Cap ₹257.29 ₹254.66 −1.02%
Banks rose. The wider market fell.
Bank Nifty ETF gained +0.55% while the Nifty 50 ETF slipped −1.02% and midcaps fell −0.45%. A resilient banking week did not lift the broad index.
Short bonds held up. Ten-year gilts fell.
Five-year G-Secs (+0.23%) and 2031 target-maturity bonds (+0.54%) rose, while 10-year Gilt ETFs dropped −0.78% as longer-dated yields repriced after the RBI hike.
Cutoff: 12 Oct 2026 15:30 IST (NSE settled closes in ₹; SPX settled 9 Oct in index pts)
INVEXOR WEEKLY · ISSUE 13 · 12 OCT 2026 PAGE 03 OF 09
03 · PRICE & VALUE

Short-term noise. Long-term business.

GLOBAL
Price moves quickly. Understanding a business takes longer.
“Every tick is an emergency!”
“Customers still buy. Cash still comes in.”
Editorial pen-and-ink cartoon: a loud street barker shouting daily price swings on the left while a calm investor reads an annual business report outside a thriving Indian shop on the right.

Look behind the price: customers, cash and business quality.

The price dips, your phone lights up, and suddenly everyone has a reason to sell. A red screen can make a small wobble feel like a verdict on your future.

Then look inside the business. Customers may still be buying. Bills may still be paid. A falling ticker doesn’t tell us whether the company has weakened or its shares have become more attractive. That answer lives in sales, cash, debt and the price you pay.

A cheaper share still needs a sound business case.
INVEXOR WEEKLY · ISSUE 13 · 12 OCT 2026 PAGE 04 OF 09
04 · AGENTIC AI

An AI agent walks into a shop.

GLOBAL
Tell your AI the errand. Let it deal with the shop.
Editorial pen-and-ink cartoon on terracotta ground: a customer at the shop door delegating a jacket return to a small AI agent while two merchants behind the counter look on in surprise.
CUSTOMER INSTRUCTION
Return this jacket
AGENT PERMISSION
Return only
RETAILER COUNTER
Supported task: returns

Poppy draft · 9 Oct 2026 · Muse download estimate: first 22 days, US & Canada · Early design, not universal rollout.

Today we tap through apps. Personal AI agents aim to do the errand for us. On 9 October, Sierra published Poppy, a draft shared with Meta, Stripe, Shopify and other partners.

In its jacket-return example, your agent identifies itself and uses only the access you approved. The shop sets the rules. You keep control.

Meta’s Muse reached an estimated 5 million downloads in 22 days in the US and Canada. That shows interest, not proven use. For Indian businesses, customers may start sending instructions instead of visiting an app.

The next person in the queue might be someone’s software.
INVEXOR WEEKLY · ISSUE 13 · 12 OCT 2026 PAGE 05 OF 09
05 · INDIAN IT

IT shares rose. Did the business improve?

INDIA · US
US green-card scrutiny returned. Indian IT shares still rose.
Editorial pen-and-ink cartoon on mustard ground: a US bureaucrat inspecting files from 8 companies with a magnifying glass while Indian software engineers in Bengaluru ship code on a video call.
US GREEN-CARD REVIEW
Reported pause at 8 companies
INDIA · SOFTWARE DELIVERY
Offshore engineering team
9 OCT MARKET MOVE
Nifty IT +3.02% ≠ proof of new orders

9 Oct 2026 · Nifty IT closing move: +3.02% · Reported pause concerns green-card processing, not all work visas.

The US reportedly paused a green-card process for 8 companies, including Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys. That sounds like trouble for Indian IT. But on 9 October, the Nifty IT index rose 3.02% by the close.

The key detail was what had stopped: PERM, a step in a company-sponsored green-card application. It wasn’t a blanket ban on work visas or software delivered from India. The rally was real; stronger customer demand still has to show up in new deals and revenue.

A shorter visa queue cannot fill an order book.
INVEXOR WEEKLY · ISSUE 13 · 12 OCT 2026 PAGE 06 OF 09
06 · AI BUSINESS

AI is booming. Who gets paid?

TAIWAN · AUSTRALIA NYSE: TSM · TWSE: 2330
TSMC is selling chips. Firmus still needs funding.
Editorial pen-and-ink cartoon on terracotta ground: a chip foundry manager delivering silicon wafers on the left while a data-center executive hides a shelved IPO easel before skeptical bankers on the right.
SELLING CHIPS RAISING CAPITAL
TSMC · TAIWAN · CHIP SALES
Sept sales · NT$511.86bn
+54.6% YEAR ON YEAR
FIRMUS · AI DATA CENTRES
IPO SHELVED · SEEKING PRIVATE FUNDING

September consolidated sales · IPO withdrawn 9 Oct · Neither company is India-listed. Read the full analysis →

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes advanced chips. On 8 October, it reported September sales of NT$511.86bn, up 54.6% from a year earlier. That is money from products sold, not quarterly profit or AI-only revenue.

Firmus builds AI data centres. On 9 October, it withdrew its planned US$5bn Australian stock-market listing, citing market conditions, and turned to private funding. Indian investors looking at the AI boom need to separate businesses selling products today from those still raising money to build capacity.

AI may be one boom. Its businesses are on different clocks.
INVEXOR WEEKLY · ISSUE 13 · 12 OCT 2026 PAGE 07 OF 09
07 · MACROS CORNER
INDIA

Which businesses can take the hit?

Risk specialist
Oil, the rupee and rates: where businesses feel the squeeze.
Repo Rate
5.50%
+25 bps · 7 Oct · RBI MPC
Forex Reserves
$734.6bn
2 Oct · ~11m import cover · RBI
Indian Crude Basket
$116.1
Sep avg/bbl · $90.2 Aug · RBI (PPAC)
Equity Fund Inflows
₹38.3k cr
Sep net inflow · Smallcap ₹9,039 cr
3M Commercial Paper
6.91%
Avg since Aug · T-Bill 5.29% · RBI
Foreign Equity Flows
−₹23.3k cr
1–7 Oct FII · DII +₹24.9k cr · NSE cash
Can prices keep up with costs?
Where energy and imported inputs rise, check gross-margin history, currency hedges and whether a business can pass higher costs to customers without losing volume.
When will borrowing costs reset?
Loan pricing depends on debt terms, credit spreads and maturity schedules, not the repo rate alone. Check floating-rate debt share and refinancing due over the next two quarters.
INVEXOR WEEKLY · ISSUE 13 · 12 OCT 2026 PAGE 08 OF 09
08 · FOUNDER’S NOTE

The soul of Invexor Labs.

Note from the founder

I’m building Invexor for Indian investors and advisors. AI can help us read more, compare better and explore the evidence. But deciding what matters is still a human job.

That is also the standard for this Weekly. Smallcaps and largecaps can tell different stories. An AI agent can change how people deal with businesses. Chip sales and fundraising are different parts of the same boom. The charts, words and art should make those differences clear.

More information isn’t the point. Better judgment is.

Bharath Komaravolu
Founder, Invexor Labs
The Soul of Invexor Labs: a person on a mountain beneath the Invexor brain and circuit emblem, surrounded by a field of stars.